A new tariff regime has entered into force, but the old uncertainties remain as shippers and carriers battle to secure their positions in the run up to the final weeks of contract negotiations.

According to Hong Kong consultancy Linerlytica, carriers smuggled through the first spot rate gains of this year, but the fundamental signals coming from the industry do not suggest these gains can be supported, even in the short term.

“Carriers secured their first rate gains in 2025 as they pushed through the 1 April GRI [general rate increase]. However, the tentative capacity cuts led by MSC and OCEAN Alliance are not matched by Gemini and Premier Alliance, which will continue to test the carriers’ resolve to enforce capacity discipline amidst growing concerns over weakening cargo demand as the new Trump tariffs loom.”

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